the model's favourite Monaco 50% 2.00
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Monaco's away form and league-leading position favour them, but Lorient's draw-heavy h2h keeps this closer than the price.
Sunday 18 October 2026. 25 games. The model's number on every game in the leagues with a public record, and the market's prices on the rest.
Our singles, graded in public: 34 graded, 20 landed, every one listed. The record
the model's favourite Monaco 50% 2.00
Monaco's away form and league-leading position favour them, but Lorient's draw-heavy h2h keeps this closer than the price.
market favourite Cesena 2.25 44% implied
Cesena are winless at home in five; Avellino, the better side, still can't be backed outright.
the model's favourite Le Havre 41% 2.25
Two bottom-half sides rarely draw and rarely win away, so goals look the safer read than the scoreline.
the model's favourite Paris FC 41% 2.15
Paris FC's unbeaten home run backs the goals call; BTTS looks the trap at this price.
the model's favourite Arsenal 60% 1.62
Forest's leaky home form and missing centre-backs hand Arsenal's away run the platform to win
market favourite Lech Poznan 1.57 64% implied
Lech's perfect home run and a lopsided h2h outweigh Korona's decent away form and a Bayer hangover
the model's favourite 1899 Hoffenheim 51% 2.05
Two toothless, injury-hit sides point to goals, not a winner, this weekend
market favourite FC Copenhagen 1.57 64% implied
Perfect home form meets an away side winless in five; Aarhus's double chance is the trap
the model's favourite AC Milan 56% 1.70
Milan are favourites but shaky at home; Atalanta have won half of the last ten meetings anyway.
market favourite Başakşehir 1.65 61% implied
Seven home wins in the last ten meetings and Gaziantep's poor away form favour Başakşehir outright.
market favourite Girona 1.75 57% implied
Girona's table position and healthier home form favor the hosts over a struggling Andorra side
market favourite Valladolid 1.91 52% implied
Valladolid's home advantage and Eldense's away slump point to Valladolid or draw, not a blank away bet
the model's favourite Real Sociedad 45% 2.20
Two defensively short sides meet at La Rosaleda, goals look likelier than a clean sheet
market favourite Tromso 1.40 71% implied
Tromso's home platform and KFUM's shaky away form outweigh a red-hot overall run
market favourite Sampdoria 1.75 57% implied
Sampdoria's home advantage is real, but two defensive injuries open the door for goals both ways.
market favourite Twente 1.33 75% implied
Fourth-placed Twente's hot home form against a struggling Utrecht side that wins once in five away.
market favourite NEC Nijmegen 1.70 59% implied
NEC's winless run at home says the 1.57 favourite tag is a trap.
market favourite Al-Fateh 1.85 54% implied
Two relegation-zone sides winless in five meet under a home h2h record neither can currently back
the model's favourite Juventus 58% 1.55
Lazio's away form and table gap make Juventus' home price look shorter than this game deserves
the model's favourite Lyon 51% 1.85
Lyon's home form and Nice's four absentees make this a home-controlled game, not a Nice upset.
the model's favourite Real Madrid 71% 1.25
Real Madrid's h2h and home form still rule, but four absences open the door to goals
market favourite Cruzeiro 2.15 47% implied
Cruzeiro's table advantage and h2h record make them the find; Gremio's two home wins are stale, not form.
market favourite Sabadell 2.70 37% implied
Burgos's home form and Sabadell's away draws both say double chance, not Burgos to win outright.
market favourite Flamengo 2.05 49% implied
Flamengo's 9-1 head-to-head hold and table gap outweigh Bahia's good home run.
market favourite RB Bragantino 2.10 48% implied
Remo's barren home run and a key injury favour Bragantino doing enough not to lose.
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