Football betting guides
Plain-English explainers on how the markets work, how to build a bet, and how we prove the model. No jargon, all free.
Betting basics
The two things to read first: what the words mean, and why short accas land.
Markets explained
One page per market: what the bet is, how often it lands, and what to check before backing it.
Over 2.5 goals
What the line means, how often it lands, and when a match profile points to goals.
ReadBoth teams to score
How BTTS works, why it is closer to a coin flip than it looks, and what to check first.
ReadDouble chance
Backing two of three outcomes: safer, shorter odds, and one of the model's strongest markets.
ReadDraw no bet
Stake back if it ends level: a lower-variance way to back a favourite, explained honestly.
ReadCorrect score
The hardest market to call, why the odds are big, and how we frame the most likely scorelines.
ReadEFL betting
Championship, League One and League Two: how the lower leagues differ and where the edges hide.
ReadHow the model works
The data, the calibration, the grading, and the claims we refuse to make.
Our methodology
How the Money Model calls a match: the data, the calibration, and what the numbers mean.
ReadHow we verify results
Every pick is logged before kick-off and graded against the real result, in public.
ReadWhy our odds look lower
We show the fair price, not the bookmaker's margin, so you can see the true edge.
ReadWhy we do not claim 95%
What an honest football hit rate actually looks like, and why the inflated claims are nonsense.
ReadFree tools
The calculators behind the model, and the assistant that answers on it.
Guides are for information, not betting advice. See the model's live track record, always open to check. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.