Value bets

Games where our model's number sits above what the bookmaker's price needs, most likely first. A gap is not a promise of profit; every pick is graded in public.

20 picks listed

What is on this page?

Each card shows our model's number for a pick and the chance its price needs to break even. Here the model's number is the higher of the two. That is a difference of opinion with the bookmaker, not an advantage.

How do we find them?

We set our model's probabilities against odds from 10+ bookmakers and list the games where the model's number is above what the best price needs.

Atlanta United FC v

Model 80%+ · price needs 77% 1.30

Atlanta FC 77% to score (Inter Miami concede 1.7/game). Inter Miami 80%+ to score (Atlanta FC concede 1.7/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Model 79% · price needs 74% 1.36

Valerenga 79% to score (Brann concede 1.5/game). Brann 80%+ to score (Valerenga concede 2.0/game).

Best odds at William Hill

New England Revolution v

Model 76% · price needs 71% 1.40

New Englan... 79% to score (avg 1.7/game). Chicago Fire 80%+ to score (avg 1.8/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Borussia Mönchengladbach v

1899 Hoffenheim

Model 76% · price needs 71% 1.40

Avg 4.7 goals/game expected.

Best odds at Bet365

Sarpsborg 08 FF v

Model 76% · price needs 69% 1.44

Sarpsborg ... 74% to score. Rosenborg 80%+ to score (avg 1.8/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Fortuna Sittard

Model 75% · price needs 69% 1.44

NEC Nijmegen 80%+ to score (Fortuna Si... concede 1.9/game). Fortuna Si... 80%+ to score (NEC Nijmegen concede 1.8/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Bayer Leverkusen v

Model 75% · price needs 67% 1.50

Bayer Leve... 80%+ to score (avg 2.8/game). SC Freiburg 80%+ to score (Bayer Leve... concede 1.6/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Danish Superliga

FC Copenhagen v

Model 68% · price needs 62% 1.62

Avg 3.3 goals/game expected.

Best odds at Bet365

Champions League

Model 67% · price needs 62% 1.62

Avg 3.8 goals/game expected.

Best odds at Bet365

Champions League

Model 67% · price needs 61% 1.65

Liverpool 80%+ to score (Villarreal concede 2.0/game). Villarreal 80%+ to score (Liverpool concede 2.0/game).

Best odds at William Hill

Nottingham Forest v

Under 2.5 Goals

Model 57% · price needs 51% 1.95

Avg 2.3 goals/game expected.

Best odds at Bet365

Saudi Pro League

Al-Hilal Saudi FC v

Model 55% · price needs 47% 2.15

Al-Hilal S... 80%+ to score (avg 3.3/game). Al-Hazm 63% to score.

Best odds at William Hill

Celta de Vigo II v

Tenerife Away Win

Model 48% · price needs 38% 2.62

Away team higher. The market prices this at 35%; the model's own number is 48%, from its record in this market

Best odds at William Hill

New York City FC v

Los Angeles FC Away Win

Model 47% · price needs 42% 2.40

Away team higher. Hosts struggling. The market prices this at 38%; the model's own number is 47%, from its record in this market

Best odds at William Hill

BK Hacken Away Win

Model 47% · price needs 40% 2.50

Away team higher. Away form WDWLW.

Best odds at William Hill

Under 2.5 Goals

Model 46% · price needs 42% 2.40

Avg 2.8 goals/game expected.

Best odds at Bet365

Rayo Vallecano Away Win

Model 44% · price needs 38% 2.62

Away team higher. The market prices this at 36%; the model's own number is 44%, from its record in this market

Best odds at William Hill

Danish Superliga

Silkeborg Away Win

Model 44% · price needs 38% 2.60

Away team higher. Hosts struggling. The market prices this at 35%; the model's own number is 44%, from its record in this market

Best odds at William Hill

Houston Dynamo v

FC Dallas Away Win

Model 40% · price needs 34% 2.90

Away team higher.

Best odds at William Hill

Cagliari Away Win

Model 38% · price needs 33% 3.00

5th visits 16th. Away form WWWWD. The market prices this at 31%; the model's own number is 38%, from its record in this market

Best odds at William Hill

Value betting FAQ

What do the two numbers mean?

The model number is our model's chance for the pick. The price needs number is the chance the odds need to break even: 100 divided by the decimal odds, so odds of 2.00 need 50%.

Is a model number above the price a promise of profit?

No. A model number above what the price needs is not a promise of profit; our record shows these gaps have not paid on their own. Every pick is graded in public.

How often is this page updated?

The list is recalculated through the day from the latest odds at 10+ bookmakers. As prices move, games join the list and others drop off.

What does the long shot label mean?

Our model rates the pick under a 1-in-5 chance. Most long shots lose, so stake accordingly, or not at all.

Keep exploring

Today Today's tips Every rated pick for today, ranked by our model's confidence. See today's tips › Free Today's free acca One a day at 10:00, every leg checked against both sides' form, graded win or lose. See the free acca › Proof The track record Every pick graded, wins and losses. See how the model really does. See the record ›

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.