Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction
Full time 2-1
Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:30 BundesligaFull time. The result is on the record.
1155 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Bayer Leverkusen 55%
Draw 23%
SC Freiburg 22%
The read
The deskLeverkusen have won four and drawn one of their last five, extending to unbeaten in five at home, while new manager Kasper Hjulmand's rebuilt squad has settled quickly after a summer of major departures. Freiburg sit above them on paper, top of the table, with four wins and a draw in their last five overall, but their away form reads two wins, a draw and two losses in the last five, both losses coming in the most recent two away trips. Head-to-head, Leverkusen have won five of the last ten meetings to Freiburg's two, with three draws, a lopsided record given Freiburg's current table position. Team news searches turned up nothing confirmed inside the last two days for either side; the only named items are older or undated reports (Flekken and Tella for Leverkusen, Rosenfelder and Lienhart doubts for Freiburg), so nothing here should be treated as settled team news. The angle is that Freiburg's league position overstates how they travel, and a casual read of the table misses that. The call is Leverkusen or a draw, backed by the home run and the head-to-head record, with Leverkusen's own win needing the draw risk flagged given three h2h draws in ten.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeBayer LeverkusenMark Flekken: knee injury, reported several weeks out (undated report) · Nathan Tella: foot injury, reported several weeks out (undated report) · Patrik Schick: thigh injury reported earlier in the season, recovery status unconfirmed
SC FreiburgMax Rosenfelder: thigh issue flagged as a doubt (date uncertain) · Philipp Lienhart: abdominal injury, reported not yet training with the squad (date uncertain)
Checked Thu 15 Oct, 06:49.
The research
ProLeverkusen have won 4 of their last 5 and Freiburg 4 of their last 5 too, both sides winning games rather than grinding results; the pack's own Under 1.5 line sits at just 24%, pointing to goals flowing from both ends.
The read lines up with the evidence: Leverkusen are unbeaten in 5 at home, Freiburg have only 2 wins in the last 10 h2h, and Freiburg's away form carries 2 defeats in its last 5, both of them the most recent.
Leverkusen are unbeaten in 5 at home (4W 1D) and in form overall (4W 1D in last 5); Freiburg's away form reads 2W 1D 2L in last 5, with the h2h lopsided at 5 Leverkusen wins to 2 for Freiburg in the last 10.
Both sides are winning rather than grinding: Leverkusen 4 wins and a draw in their last 5, Freiburg 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 too, a pattern that tends to come with goals at both ends.
The trap here is Freiburg's table position, top of the division, but the game evidence says otherwise: only 2 wins in the last 10 h2h, and Freiburg's last 5 away games read 2W 1D 2L with both losses the most recent two trips.
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 06:49. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. Research confirms rather than changes the read: Leverkusen's unbeaten home run, Freiburg's two most recent away defeats, and a 5-3-2 h2h split all support the call. It stays MEDIUM, not STRONG, purely because of the house rule on short double-chance prices.
“Table-topping Freiburg travel poorly and history says Leverkusen or a draw, not an away certainty.”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 55% | 1.62 | 62% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.50 | 22% |
| SC Freiburg win | 22% | 5.00 | 20% |
| Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 1.18 | 85% | |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 45% | 2.30 | 43% |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.22 | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.44 | 69% |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 1.50 | 67% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
26 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeBayer Leverkusen
WWWWWD
Last 6, newest first: 5 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost. 16 scored, 6 conceded.
v SC Freiburg
2-1
Won
at Lech Poznan
4-0
Won
at Mainz
4-3
Won
v RB Leipzig
2-0
Won
v NK Celje
2-0
Won
at FC Augsburg
2-2
Drew
SC Freiburg
LWWDWW
Last 6, newest first: 4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost. 14 scored, 7 conceded.
at Bayer Leverkusen
1-2
Lost
v Jablonec
3-2
Won
v Schalke 04
2-1
Won
at Eintracht Frankfurt
2-2
Drew
v Borussia Mönchengladbach
5-0
Won
at SC Paderborn 07
1-0
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg: the numbers
Always freeBayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
4League position3
4-1-1League record, won-drawn-lost4-1-1
16-9Goals for and against15-6
13Points13
3-0-0Home record v away record1-1-1
2.67Scored a game2.50
1.50Conceded a game1.00
2.32xG for a game2.09
24%Clean sheets18%
12%Failed to score26%
65%Both teams scored62%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg: head to head
Always freeOnly 1 meeting on our record, too few to read a pattern from.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg
2-1
The full Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg head-to-head history
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: FAQs
Always freeBayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.44. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:30 UK time (Bundesliga).
What are the best odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
The best prices across the books we track: Bayer Leverkusen 1.62, the draw 4.50, SC Freiburg 5.00. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen: Mark Flekken: knee injury, reported several weeks out (undated report), Nathan Tella: foot injury, reported several weeks out (undated report), Patrik Schick: thigh injury reported earlier in the season, recovery status unconfirmed. SC Freiburg: Max Rosenfelder: thigh issue flagged as a doubt (date uncertain), Philipp Lienhart: abdominal injury, reported not yet training with the squad (date uncertain).
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 6 (W W W W W D, newest first), scoring 16 and conceding 6. SC Freiburg have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 6 (L W W D W W, newest first), scoring 14 and conceding 7.
What is the head to head between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg?
In their last meeting on our record, Bayer Leverkusen won 1, SC Freiburg won 0 and 0 were drawn. The most recent, 18 Oct 2026, finished Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fiorentina v Como
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (1-3) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Kristiansund BK v Aalesund
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-4) Landed
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Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Newcastle v Aston Villa
1.62
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Plymouth v Huddersfield
1.65
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Swansea v West Ham
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.