Why our odds look lower than other tipster sites
Short answer: the price we print is the best price at a UK-available bookmaker. Never Pinnacle, SBO, 1xBet or an exchange. So it is a price a UK punter can actually take. It can look a little lower than other sites, and it stops you reading numbers you can't get.
The problem with "best odds"
Open most tipster sites and you'll see a tip like "Arsenal v Spurs · BTTS Yes 1.95". Sounds great. Then you check Sky Bet and it's 1.72. The 1.95 came from Pinnacle, an exchange or a sharp continental book most UK punters don't have an account at. And even if you opened one, it's likely to limit or close winning customers fast.
Quoting an odds you can't take inflates the page's apparent value. It doesn't help anyone bet better.
What we do
For every pick, we look across the bookmakers our odds feed tracks, keep only the ones a UK punter can open an account with, and print the best price among them, with the bookmaker's name beside it.
- In: UK-available books such as William Hill, Sky Bet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, BetVictor, Unibet, BoyleSports, Betfred and 888sport
- Out: Pinnacle, SBO, 1xBet and the other sharp or offshore books most UK punters cannot use
- Out: exchanges such as Betfair Exchange, Smarkets and Matchbook, where the price moves and commission comes off
The best UK price is a price you can take, today, at a book you can use. That is the only price worth checking a pick against.
The probability the model uses for picking is still worked out the careful way, from the lowest traditional bookmaker odds with the exchanges left out. A pick has to clear its checks on a cautious number, then we show you the best price you can actually get for it.
Numbers: a real example
| Source | Sample BTTS odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 52.1% |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.94 | 51.5% |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Sky Bet | 1.73 | 57.8% |
The 1.92 and the 1.94 look great, but most UK punters can't take either. The best price at a UK-available bookmaker is Bet365 at 1.80, so that is the price we print, with the book's name beside it.
What this means for your returns
A few points of price on every leg add up across an acca. A site quoting sharp prices for the same legs will show a bigger combined price than we do. They're the same picks. The difference is whether you can actually get the price on the page.
If you want sharper prices, that's a fine personal choice: open a Pinnacle account, watch betting Twitter for arbitrage, accept being limited at retail books. But we won't pretend every reader has done that.
Where you can see the difference
Every match preview includes an "Odds Across Bookmakers" panel showing every bookmaker's price for the selected market. Click it open to compare. We'll never bury the other prices, we just won't headline one you can't take.
Read more about the model itself on our methodology page, or download the full record at /track-record.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.