Lorient vs Monaco Prediction
Full time 1-0
Sunday 18 October 2026, 16:15 Ligue 1Full time. The result is on the record.
1154 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Lorient 22%
Draw 28%
Monaco 50%
The read
The deskLorient arrive on the back of three losses in their last five at home (W D L L L), sitting eighth, while Monaco top the table and have lost just once in their last five away (D W W W L). That form gap is real, but the head to head is not one-sided: across the last ten meetings Lorient have won three, Monaco two, and five have been drawn, so this fixture has historically run tighter than the table suggests. Team news for this exact matchday could not be confirmed; the most recent dated Lorient list, ahead of their 10 October game, had Mbamba, Katseris and Fadiga out, and Monaco's longer-term absence is Salisu with an ACL tear, though neither is verified current for 18 October. The angle is goals: a leaky recent Lorient home record against a Monaco side that scores on the road supports the model's Over 1.5 call and gives BTTS Yes a case too. The call: hold the model's Over 1.5 at 1.29, backed by Lorient's home form and Monaco's away scoring, while treating any clean Monaco result bet as a form read, not a certainty, given the draw-heavy history here.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeLorientMbamba: out, muscle (per pre-Paris FC snapshot) · Katseris: out, hamstring (per pre-Paris FC snapshot) · Fadiga: out, ankle (per pre-Paris FC snapshot)
MonacoSalisu: out, ACL tear (date unconfirmed)
Checked Thu 15 Oct, 12:27.
The research
ProLorient have lost three of their last five at home (W D L L L) while Monaco have won three of their last five away (D W W W L); BTTS Yes is priced 1.75 in the match odds, pointing to goals from both sides in a game shaping up open at both ends.
Monaco sit top of the table against Lorient in 8th, and Monaco's away form is 3W 1D 1L in their last five against Lorient's home form of 1W 1D 3L.
Lorient's home run shows three losses in five (W D L L L), the kind of run where goals are conceded, while Monaco's away form of 3W 1D 1L has come with goals at both ends; BTTS Yes is priced 1.75 in the match odds.
Monaco top the table, Lorient sit 8th, and Monaco's away form is 3W 1D 1L in their last five against Lorient's home form of 1W 1D 3L.
The trap here is the draw-heavy history, 5 draws in the last 10 meetings, pulling backers toward Lorient or Draw at 1.77, but Lorient have lost three of their last five at home (W D L L L), including their most recent three in a row, while Monaco arrive top of the table on the back of 3W 1D 1L away.
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 12:27. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. Research confirms the model's call: Lorient's three losses in five at home and Monaco's scoring form away (3W 1D 1L) both point toward goals, with BTTS Yes at 1.75 in the match odds backing the same read.
“Monaco's away form and league-leading position favour them, but Lorient's draw-heavy h2h keeps this closer than the price.”
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The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 22% | 3.50 | 29% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 | 29% |
| Monaco win | 50% | 2.10 | 48% |
| Lorient or draw | 58% | 1.75 | 57% |
| Monaco or draw | 74% | 1.29 | 78% |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.30 | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 1.91 | 52% |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 1.80 | 56% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
26 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeLorient
WWLDWL
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 7 scored, 6 conceded.
v AS Monaco
1-0
Won
v Paris FC
1-0
Won
at Le Mans
1-2
Lost
v Toulouse
2-2
Drew
at Lens
1-0
Won
v Troyes
1-2
Lost
Monaco
LWDWDW
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost. 9 scored, 7 conceded.
at Lorient
0-1
Lost
at Cska Sofia
2-1
Won
v Toulouse
2-2
Drew
v Lens
2-1
Won
at Strasbourg
1-1
Drew
at Paris Saint Germain
2-1
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Lorient v Monaco: the numbers
Always freeLorientMonaco
7League position4
3-2-2League record, won-drawn-lost4-2-1
7-6Goals for and against10-6
11Points14
2-1-1Home record v away record2-1-1
1.00Scored a game1.43
0.86Conceded a game0.86
1.09xG for a game1.28
21%Clean sheets21%
29%Failed to score21%
53%Both teams scored65%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Lorient v Monaco: head to head
Always freeOnly 1 meeting on our record, too few to read a pattern from.
FC Lorient v AS Monaco FC
1-0
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
Lorient vs Monaco: FAQs
Always freeLorient vs Monaco prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 1.5 at 1.30. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Lorient vs Monaco kick off?
Lorient vs Monaco kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:15 UK time (Ligue 1).
What are the best odds for Lorient vs Monaco?
The best prices across the books we track: Lorient 3.50, the draw 3.50, Monaco 2.10. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Lorient vs Monaco?
Lorient: Mbamba: out, muscle (per pre-Paris FC snapshot), Katseris: out, hamstring (per pre-Paris FC snapshot), Fadiga: out, ankle (per pre-Paris FC snapshot). Monaco: Salisu: out, ACL tear (date unconfirmed).
What form are Lorient and Monaco in?
Lorient have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (W W L D W L, newest first), scoring 7 and conceding 6. Monaco have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 6 (L W D W D W, newest first), scoring 9 and conceding 7.
What is the head to head between Lorient and Monaco?
In their last meeting on our record, Lorient won 1, Monaco won 0 and 0 were drawn. The most recent, 18 Oct 2026, finished FC Lorient 1-0 AS Monaco FC.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fiorentina v Como
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (1-3) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Kristiansund BK v Aalesund
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-4) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Newcastle v Aston Villa
1.62
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Plymouth v Huddersfield
1.65
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Swansea v West Ham
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.