The record
Every call the model publishes, locked before kick-off and graded against the result. Losses included, nothing deleted.
Last updated 18 Oct 2026, 09:35
The model's calls, graded
Information, not what we stake. Every call the model publishes on a league on the record, locked before kick-off. A hit rate is not a profit: a short price needs a high one. That is why the singles we stake are a stricter set.
Calls graded
Won / lost
Hit rate
Monthly breakdown
Wins and losses, month by month. Tap a bar for the count.
Feb 26
Mar 26
Apr 26
May 26
Jun 26
Jul 26
Aug 26
Sep 26
Oct 26
Wins
Losses
Breakdown by market
Every market we have graded, with its hit rate on the record.
Over 1.5 goals
Home win
Double chance: home or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Both teams to score: yes
Draw no bet: home
Away win
Under 3.5 goals
Double chance: home or away
Under 4.5 goals
Double chance: away or draw
Both teams to score: no
Markets with fewer than 10 verified picks hidden. Too small a sample to draw conclusions.
Calibration by confidence
For each probability band: what the model predicted vs what actually happened. Close to zero = well-calibrated.
80%+
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
30-40%
Green = within 5pp (calibrated). Gold = over-delivering (actual beat the prediction). Red = under-delivering. Small samples are noisy. Weigh bands with more picks more heavily.
Breakdown by league
The same record, split by competition.
Championship
League One
League Two
Premier League
La Liga
Serie A
Bundesliga
Ligue 1
Champions League
World Cup
Brazilian Série A
The model's next calls Locked before kick-off
Already locked into the record above, timestamped before their games kick off. Whatever happens, they grade in public. Every call, priced
Udinese v Lecce
Double chance: home or draw
Serie A
away lost 4 of 6
Sun 18 Oct, 11:30
locked 17 Oct, 08:30
Osasuna v Racing Santander
Over 1.5 goals
La Liga
over 1.5 landed in 11 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 6 of 6)
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00
locked 17 Oct, 08:30
Angers v Marseille
Over 1.5 goals
Ligue 1
over 1.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00
locked 3 Oct, 22:46
Bournemouth v Sunderland
Double chance: home or draw
Premier League
home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00
locked 18 Oct, 08:30
Fiorentina v Como
Over 1.5 goals
Serie A
over 1.5 landed in 11 of the sides' last 12 games (home 6 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00
locked 18 Oct, 08:30
Leeds v Manchester United
Over 1.5 goals
Premier League
over 1.5 landed in 10 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 5 of 6)
Sun 18 Oct, 14:00
locked 18 Oct, 08:30
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg
Double chance: home or draw
Bundesliga
home unbeaten in 5 of 6
Sun 18 Oct, 14:30
locked 15 Oct, 08:30
AC Milan v Atalanta
Double chance: home or draw
Serie A
home unbeaten in 5 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6
Sun 18 Oct, 17:00
locked 16 Oct, 08:30
Lyon v Nice
Over 1.5 goals
Ligue 1
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Sun 18 Oct, 19:45
locked 15 Oct, 08:30
Real Madrid v Sevilla
Home win
La Liga
home won 5 of 6 · away won 2 of 6
Sun 18 Oct, 20:00
locked 15 Oct, 08:30
Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha
Over 1.5 goals
Champions League
over 1.5 landed in 9 of the sides' last 12 games (home 5 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Tue 20 Oct, 17:45
locked 18 Oct, 08:30
Bristol Rovers v Salford City
Over 1.5 goals
League Two
over 1.5 landed in 8 of the sides' last 12 games (home 4 of 6 · away 4 of 6)
Tue 20 Oct, 19:45
locked 18 Oct, 08:30
Full pick history
Every graded pick, newest first. Filter by market, league, result or date.
| Date | Match | League | Pick | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct |
  AS Roma v Genoa
2-0
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 4/6).
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Newcastle v Aston Villa
0-1
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.16 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Bologna v Inter
1-3
|
Serie A |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.16 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 1-3, 4 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Manchester City v Ipswich
3-2
|
Premier League |
Home win
70%
|
1.20 |
Won
The model made Manchester City to win a 70% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home won 6 of 6 · away won 2 of 6 and lost 4 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 3-2.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Everton v Chelsea
0-2
|
Premier League |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 6/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 0-2, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Norwich v Portsmouth
0-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.14 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 4/6).
Missed. One of the ~1-in-5 that a 80%+ call still loses, and we log every one. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Swansea v West Ham
0-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.15 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. One of the ~1-in-5 that a 80%+ call still loses, and we log every one. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Derby v Stoke City
0-1
|
Championship |
Over 1.5 goals
74%
|
1.25 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a 74% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05
0-1
|
Bundesliga |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.16 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 5/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07
2-2
|
Bundesliga |
Double chance: home or draw
79%
|
1.19 |
Won
The model made Werder Bremen or the draw a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-2.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Espanyol v Atletico Madrid
0-1
|
La Liga |
Over 1.5 goals
74%
|
1.24 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a 74% lean before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 12/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 0-1, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Wigan v Reading
1-0
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
79%
|
1.16 |
Lost
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 9/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 6/6).
Missed. A lean, not a lock, and the game broke the other way. It finished 1-0, only one goal, short of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Wycombe v Notts County
2-0
|
League One |
Double chance: home or draw
79%
|
1.19 |
Won
The model made Wycombe or the draw a strong 79% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 5 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6.
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Barnsley v Cambridge United
1-2
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 6/6 · away 5/6).
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 1-2, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
Wycombe v Notts County
2-0
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
76%
|
1.21 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 76% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-0, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon
5-0
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
78%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 78% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 4/6 · away 4/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 5-0, 5 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Milton Keynes Dons v Luton
2-1
|
League One |
Over 1.5 goals
78%
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 78% read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 10/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 5/6).
Landed. The model's lean came good. It finished 2-1, 3 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Peterborough v Burton Albion
2-2
|
League One |
Double chance: home or draw
80%+
|
1.17 |
Won
The model made Peterborough or the draw a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 4 of 6 · away lost 3 of 6.
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 2-2.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Bradford v Stevenage
2-0
|
League One |
Double chance: home or draw
80%+
|
1.14 |
Won
The model made Bradford or the draw a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: home unbeaten in 6 of 6.
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 2-0.
|
| 17 Oct |
  Swindon Town v Walsall
1-1
|
League Two |
Over 1.5 goals
80%+
|
1.15 |
Won
The model made Over 1.5 goals a strong 80%+ read before a ball was kicked. The receipts: over 1.5 agreed in 8/12 of the sides' recent games (home 3/6 · away 5/6).
Landed, exactly as the model read it. It finished 1-1, 2 goals, clear of the 1.5 line.
|
Showing 20 of 1147
Disclaimer: Odds shown are the best available at the time the prediction was recorded. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. T&Cs apply.
A note from 20 August: nine MLS double-chance picks, three won and six lost, had been published under an automatic promotion. When promotions became a human decision they were moved out of this headline count. They stay graded in the full history above.
Pro
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.
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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.