Derby 0-1 Stoke City
Derby
0-1
Stoke City
Our call before kick-off
Over 1.5 at 1.25
lost
The evidence we published: Over 1.5 agreed in 11/12 of the sides' recent games (home 5/6 · away 6/6).
Logged before kick-off at the price shown and graded from the final score. Every call is on the track record, wins and losses alike.
How the game went
One goal short. Going in, the two sides' recent form pointed to about 2.9 goals, with two or more the likelier outcome.
Our read before the game
Derby's back four is gone; Stoke arrive in form, and the goals line is where the evidence points.
Derby go into this with five defenders missing and zero home wins in their last five, while Stoke travel sixth in the table on four wins and a draw from their last five matches. The shape of this game favours goals and Stoke's side of the result, whatever the longer head to head history says.
Derby team news
- Charlie Taylor: out, hamstring (around a month)
- Derry Murkin: out
- Craig Forsyth: out
- Matt Clarke: out, calf
- Eiran Cashin: out, calf
Stoke City team news
No absence found.
Written Wed 14 Oct, about 74 hours before kick-off, and left as it was.
What is next
Sheffield Utd v Derby
Sat 24 Oct, 12:30
Stoke City v Bristol City
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00