Saturday's singles

Saturday 17 October · locked before kick-off, graded after

Saturday's singles. Each one passes three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. One unit each, locked before kick-off, graded after.

The singles 5 singles, one unit each locked Wed 14 Oct, 19:00

Pick of the day

Newcastle v Aston Villa Free Lost 0-1

kick-off 17:30 · Premier League

Over 2.5 ~~1.62~~ 1.57 at Bet365 locked at 1.62

Landed in 10 of the two sides' last 12 games.

Model: clears the break-even.

The desk: No solid, source-named injury, suspension or manager news for this exact fixture turned up in search; the aggregator and club-news sites returned stale or wrong-season content, so nothing here should be treated as confirmed team news.

Caution Both sides have shipped and scored goals for fun lately, but the last two Newcastle-Villa league meetings went under the line and a joint top scorer is a doubt.

The case against

The two most recent Newcastle v Villa Premier League meetings before this one finished 0-2 and 0-0, both under the line, which is a genuine head to head warning in the same competition even though the overall H2H sample leans toward overs.
Anthony Elanga is a joint top scorer for Newcastle this season with only two league goals and is listed as a major doubt, with one outlet saying he remains out through injury and another saying he is hopeful to return, so his availability is unclear.
Newcastle's scoring is shared across many low-output players rather than one reliable source, with the club's own top scorer managing just two goals in the league this season, so the over relies partly on continued defensive leakiness rather than a proven goal source.

Missing: Anthony Elanga (Newcastle): Joint leading league scorer for Newcastle this season with two goals from three starts, and his final fitness status for this game is disputed between sources.; Jacob Ramsey (Newcastle): Also among Newcastle's top scorers this season and is listed as a major doubt, further thinning an already shallow Newcastle scoring list if he misses out.