Monday's singles

Monday 12 October · locked before kick-off, graded after

Monday's singles. Each one passes three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. One unit each, locked before kick-off, graded after.

The singles 3 singles, one unit each locked Fri 9 Oct, 19:00

Pick of the day

Chapecoense v Atletico Paranaense Free Landed 1-4

kick-off 23:30 · Brasileirão Série A

Over 2.5 ~~1.94~~ 1.95 at Bet365 locked at 1.95

Landed in 9 of the two sides' last 12 games.

Model: clears the break-even.

The desk: No confirmed, fixture-specific injury or suspension list surfaced in search for this match; treat any lineup as provisional until posted on matchday.

Caution The goal source is lopsided but the one side that can score is fit and in form, so the over has a real but limited warning.

The case against

The teams' most recent meeting this season finished 2-0 to Athletico, an under result, and it came in the same Brasileirão Série A competition, which is the kind of head to head warning that matters most.
Chapecoense's own scoring is thin, their top man has only a handful of league goals and the team averages close to one goal a game, so their contribution to the over depends on conceding rather than scoring.
A pack reading already flags that three of the two sides' last six games finished under the line, showing the unders are not a one off.

Missing: Gastón Benavídez (Athletico Paranaense): Listed with a calf injury in the team news, he is a regular creator in Athletico's attack, but he is not the club's main scoring threat so this does not remove the top goal source.; Rafael Carvalheira (Chapecoense): Out for the season with a cruciate injury, he is a midfielder rather than a scorer so his absence does not materially change Chapecoense's weak attacking output.