Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction
Full time 2-0
Sunday 18 October 2026, 14:00 Premier LeagueFull time. The result is on the record.
1155 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Bournemouth 43%
Draw 26%
Sunderland 32%
The read
The deskBournemouth sit 18th and their home form reads one win, three draws and a loss in the last five, wobbly rather than poor. Sunderland sit 17th and have won once in five away, with three losses in that run. The squads tell the bigger story. Sunderland travel without Brian Brobbey and Romaine Mundle up front, Dan Ballard is out with a hamstring picked up in the Brighton defeat on October 10, and Thomas Meunier and Mouhamadou Habib Diarra are doubts; Wilson Isidor also looked touched by injury in that same game. Bournemouth are missing six squad players, Alex Scott, Eli Kroupi, Julian Araujo, Justin Kluivert, Veljko Milosavljevic and Amine Adli, but keep Marcus Tavernier and Evanilson, their first-choice front two. New boss Marco Rose takes a weakened home side against an even more depleted visiting one. The angle is simple: Sunderland's attack is the walking wounded and their away record backs that up, while Bournemouth's own home draws keep this from being a banker. The call leans Bournemouth or a draw, not a home win outright, because the hosts have not been convincing enough at home to back alone, and Sunderland look too short of attacking options to be backed at all.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeBournemouthAlex Scott: out · Eli Kroupi: out · Julian Araujo: out · Justin Kluivert: out · Veljko Milosavljevic: out · Amine Adli: out
SunderlandBrian Brobbey: out · Romaine Mundle: out · Dan Ballard: out (hamstring) · Thomas Meunier: doubt · Mouhamadou Habib Diarra: doubt · Wilson Isidor: fitness doubt
Checked Thu 15 Oct, 06:37.
The research
ProThe board's top call at 76% @1.29. Bournemouth's home form is 1W 3D 1L in 5. Sunderland arrive with Brobbey, Mundle and Ballard all out and Meunier and Diarra doubtful, and their away form is 1W 1D 3L in 5.
Model rates this 67% @1.37. Both sides are light up top, Sunderland without Brobbey and Mundle, Bournemouth without Kluivert, Adli and Kroupi, and Bournemouth's last 5 home games have produced 3 draws.
Sunderland travel without both first-choice forwards, Brobbey and Mundle, and Wilson Isidor could not be used through injury in the Oct 10 defeat to Brighton, three attacking options down for the away side.
Bournemouth have drawn 3 of their last 5 at home, and the last six meetings between these sides split 2-2-2; a tight game involving a shorthanded away side fits that pattern.
Model rates this 63% @1.66, but Sunderland's front line is hit hardest of anyone on this card: Brobbey and Mundle both out, and Isidor could not be used through injury against Brighton on Oct 10. A side missing three attacking options is less likely to supply the away goal BTTS needs.
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 06:37. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. Team news confirms rather than changes the read, Sunderland's absences support the call, but the price stays at 1.29, too short to be a slip leg.
“A shorthanded Sunderland attack travels to a Bournemouth side that draws more than it wins at home”
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The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 43% | 2.10 | 48% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 | 29% |
| Sunderland win | 32% | 3.80 | 26% |
| Bournemouth or draw | 76% | 1.30 | 77% |
| Sunderland or draw | 59% | 1.73 | 58% |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.33 | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.00 | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.85 | 54% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
26 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeBournemouth
WWLLWD
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 10 scored, 9 conceded.
v Sunderland
2-0
Won
v SK Sturm Graz
3-0
Won
at Chelsea
1-5
Lost
v Liverpool
0-1
Lost
at Real Sociedad
2-1
Won
v Brentford
2-2
Drew
Sunderland
LWLLWL
Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost. 6 scored, 12 conceded.
at AFC Bournemouth
0-2
Lost
at Torreense
2-1
Won
v Brighton & Hove Albion
0-2
Lost
at Manchester City
3-5
Lost
v AZ Alkmaar
1-0
Won
v Arsenal
0-2
Lost
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Bournemouth v Sunderland: the numbers
Always freeBournemouthSunderland
15League position19
1-3-3League record, won-drawn-lost1-1-5
9-13Goals for and against6-14
6Points4
1-2-1Home record v away record0-1-3
1.29Scored a game0.86
1.86Conceded a game2.00
1.35xG for a game1.75
29%Clean sheets29%
18%Failed to score34%
66%Both teams scored47%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Bournemouth v Sunderland: head to head
Always freeOnly 1 meeting on our record, too few to read a pattern from.
AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland AFC
2-0
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: FAQs
Always freeBournemouth vs Sunderland prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Bournemouth or Draw at 1.30. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Bournemouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Bournemouth vs Sunderland kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 UK time (Premier League).
What are the best odds for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The best prices across the books we track: Bournemouth 2.10, the draw 3.40, Sunderland 3.80. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth: Alex Scott: out, Eli Kroupi: out, Julian Araujo: out, Justin Kluivert: out, Veljko Milosavljevic: out, Amine Adli: out. Sunderland: Brian Brobbey: out, Romaine Mundle: out, Dan Ballard: out (hamstring), Thomas Meunier: doubt, Mouhamadou Habib Diarra: doubt, Wilson Isidor: fitness doubt.
What form are Bournemouth and Sunderland in?
Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (W W L L W D, newest first), scoring 10 and conceding 9. Sunderland have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 6 (L W L L W L, newest first), scoring 6 and conceding 12.
What is the head to head between Bournemouth and Sunderland?
In their last meeting on our record, Bournemouth won 1, Sunderland won 0 and 0 were drawn. The most recent, 18 Oct 2026, finished AFC Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland AFC.
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Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.