Southend vs Berkhamsted Prediction
Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 FA Cup1146 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Southend 65%
Draw 18%
Berkhamsted 17%
The read
The deskNeither side's underlying stats are loaded for this tie, so there's no run of results or a scoring/conceding line to lean on, and the read has to come from standing instead: a National League club, Southend United, hosting Berkhamsted FC of the Southern League Premier Division South. That's four tiers of English football, the kind of gap FA Cup early rounds usually settle in the bigger club's favour, the odd shock headline aside. A 48-hour search turned up no named injuries, suspensions or manager news for either squad, so there's nothing concrete pulling the game away from the expected shape. The market agrees with that reading: Southend 1.29, draw 5.00, Berkhamsted 7.50, and our own board has Southend a clear 64% favourite. The angle here isn't finding an advantage, it's recognising a short price that happens to be right. Southend winning is very likely, but at 1.29 the price sits below the 1.30 floor the sheet uses for slip legs, so it's a hold rather than something to build a slip around. Call: hold the model's favourite, backed by the division gap and the absence of any team news pulling the other way, but treat the price itself as too short to carry.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
The research
ProPriced 1.56 (Casumo, 64% implied). Southend United play in the National League, Berkhamsted FC in the Southern League Premier Division South; a four-tier gap like that usually produces a controlled home win (1-0, 2-0, 2-1) rather than a shootout.
Best price 1.29, listed as an 80% implied h2h special (BoyleSports). Our own board separately has the same outcome as clear favourite at 64% (@1.32). Southend sit in the National League, Berkhamsted in the Southern League Premier Division South.
Priced 5.00 in the match odds book; our own board has the draw at just 20% (@5.10), well behind the home win. A four-division gap between National League Southend and Southern League Premier Division South Berkhamsted argues against a cagey stalemate.
Priced 7.50 in the match odds; our own board rates it the weakest outcome on the sheet at 16% (@6.45). Berkhamsted play four divisions below Southend (Southern League Premier Division South vs National League), and nothing in the team news search offsets that gap.
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 15:42. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. No fresh team news moved the needle for either side. The division gap between National League Southend and Southern League Premier Division South Berkhamsted backs the model's favourite, but the 1.29 price keeps it out of slip range, so the call stands as a hold rather than an upgrade.
“Southend's class gap over Berkhamsted should tell, cup shocks need more than a long price.”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Best price | Implied | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Southend win | 1.30 | 77% | |
| Draw | 5.25 | 19% | |
| Berkhamsted win | 8.50 | 12% | |
| Southend or draw | 1.06 | 94% | |
| Berkhamsted or draw | 3.20 | 31% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.11 | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 69% | |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 60% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.
Every priced market
12 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeSouthend
LWWDLW
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 15 scored, 10 conceded.
v Berkhamsted
1-2
Lost
at Boston United
2-1
Won
v Fylde
3-1
Won
at Eastleigh
1-1
Drew
v Barrow
2-4
Lost
at Gateshead
6-1
Won
Berkhamsted
WWWW
Last 4, newest first: 4 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost. 11 scored, 4 conceded.
at Southend United
2-1
Won
at Redditch United
2-0
Won
v Hendon
4-1
Won
at Bishop's Stortford
3-2
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Southend v Berkhamsted: the numbers
Always freeSouthendBerkhamsted
2.30Scored a game2.75
1.39Conceded a game1.00
17%Clean sheets25%
9%Failed to score0%
78%Both teams scored75%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Southend v Berkhamsted: head to head
Always freeA first meeting: Southend and Berkhamsted have not played each other in the record we hold.
Southend vs Berkhamsted: FAQs
Always freeSouthend vs Berkhamsted prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Southend to win at 1.30. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Southend vs Berkhamsted kick off?
Southend vs Berkhamsted kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time (FA Cup).
What are the best odds for Southend vs Berkhamsted?
The best prices across the books we track: Southend 1.30, the draw 5.25, Berkhamsted 8.50. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
What form are Southend and Berkhamsted in?
Southend have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (L W W D L W, newest first), scoring 15 and conceding 10. Berkhamsted have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 (W W W W, newest first), scoring 11 and conceding 4.
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Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.