Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama Prediction
Full time 1-0
Sunday 18 October 2026, 01:00 Brasileirão Série AFull time. The result is on the record.
1148 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Sao Paulo 43%
Draw 25%
Vasco da Gama 32%
The read
The deskSao Paulo sit mid-table in 10th and their last five results overall read W L L W L, but at home they have been far more solid, winning four of their last five there. Vasco are two places lower in 14th and arrive with a better overall run, D W W W L, though their away form is split at two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five on the road. The head to head record favours the hosts: five home wins and two draws against three away wins in the last ten meetings. No injury or suspension list could be confirmed for this match; projected lineups have Calleri leading Sao Paulo's attack and Bruno Duarte up front for Vasco, with neither club's head coach confirmed in the search. That leaves the double chance, Sao Paulo or draw, as the best-grounded read, backed by the venue form and the head to head split, even though 1.30 is a thin price for it. Both teams to score sits close to a coin flip on the evidence here. Call: hold the model's lean on Sao Paulo or draw, graded medium given the price.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
The research
ProSao Paulo have won 4 of their last 5 at home (W L W W W) and Vasco arrive on a W W W D run in their last 5 overall; the head to head split (5-2-3 over the last 10) shows games here rarely stay blank.
Home win or draw has landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings (5 home wins, 2 draws), and Sao Paulo are 4-1 in their last 5 at home; Vasco's away form is only 2W-2L-1D (W W L L D) in their last 5 on the road.
Vasco's last 5 overall (D W W W L) and Sao Paulo's home run (W L W W W) both show goals at either end, but neither side's team news moves this either way on the search done here.
Vasco's overall form (D W W W L) is flattering their away record, which is only 2W-2L-1D (W W L L D) in their last 5 on the road, and they have won just 3 of the last 10 meetings with Sao Paulo, who are 4-1 at home in their last 5.
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 01:16. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. The venue form (Sao Paulo 4-1 at home in their last 5) and the head to head split (7 of the last 10 home win or draw) back the lean the model already has. No team news surfaced that changes the picture either way, so the call holds at a thin 1.30 rather than upgrading or downgrading.
“Sao Paulo's home record and head to head advantage back the double chance, priced thin at 1.30”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Best price | Implied | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo win | 2.20 | 45% | |
| Draw | 3.25 | 31% | |
| Vasco da Gama win | 3.50 | 29% | |
| Sao Paulo or draw | 1.30 | 77% | |
| Vasco da Gama or draw | 1.67 | 60% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.33 | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 48% | |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 | 53% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.
Every priced market
22 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeSao Paulo
WWLLWL
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost. 5 scored, 7 conceded.
v Vasco da Gama
1-0
Won
v Vitoria
2-1
Won
at Cruzeiro
0-2
Lost
v Santos
1-2
Lost
v Internacional
1-0
Won
at Palmeiras
0-2
Lost
Vasco da Gama
LDWWWL
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 9 scored, 4 conceded.
at Sao Paulo
0-1
Lost
v Remo
0-0
Drew
at Botafogo
2-1
Won
v Coritiba
5-0
Won
at Grêmio
2-1
Won
at Fluminense
0-1
Lost
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama: the numbers
Always freeSao PauloVasco da Gama
10League position14
11-6-13League record, won-drawn-lost9-8-12
35-35Goals for and against36-42
39Points35
9-3-3Home record v away record2-5-7
1.20Scored a game1.20
1.20Conceded a game1.40
1.62xG for a game1.79
20%Clean sheets14%
23%Failed to score31%
61%Both teams scored50%
3%Over 2.5 goals14%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama: head to head
Always freeVasco da Gama v Sao Paulo
2-1
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo
0-2
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama
1-3
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama
3-0
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo
4-1
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo
0-0
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama
4-2
Vasco da Gama v Sao Paulo
1-2
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama
2-0
Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama
1-1
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama: FAQs
Always freeSao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Sao Paulo or Draw at 1.30. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 01:00 UK time (Brasileirão Série A).
What are the best odds for Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?
The best prices across the books we track: Sao Paulo 2.20, the draw 3.25, Vasco da Gama 3.50. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
What form are Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama in?
Sao Paulo have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 6 (W W L L W L, newest first), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Vasco da Gama have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (L D W W W L, newest first), scoring 9 and conceding 4.
What is the head to head between Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama?
In their last 10 meetings on our record, Sao Paulo won 5, Vasco da Gama won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, 18 Apr 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Sao Paulo.
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Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.