Groningen vs Ajax Prediction
Full time 2-5
Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:45 EredivisieFull time. The result is on the record.
1155 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
Kicked off: the Pro view is open. What members had before kick-off, the desk's graded research included, is open below. Get it before kick-off next time
The model's read
Groningen 20%
Draw 23%
Ajax 56%
The read
The deskGroningen go into this on a mixed run, W W D D L overall with a slightly better home record, W D L W W, built on scoring enough to grab draws and wins but still shipping a loss in that stretch. Ajax's away form is the stronger pointer here: W W W D W, unbeaten in five, and it sits on top of a lopsided head to head, eight wins for Ajax in the last ten against Groningen with just one draw and one home win. The table says this should be tight, fifth against sixth, but recent history disagrees. Team news tilts toward caution on Ajax rather than confidence: Kasper Dolberg is out after knee surgery, Daley Blind remains sidelined with a back problem, Caio Henrique is out for several weeks with a thigh injury and Anton Gaaei is also out with a knee issue, while Steven Berghuis and Joeri Heerkens were both unavailable for the last fixture. That is four absences touching both the spine of the defence and the attack, which softens Ajax without flipping the picture. The call stays with Ajax to avoid defeat, built on the head to head and the away run, but the double chance price is short enough that this is a thin bet, not a standout one.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeGroningenStije Resink: out (cruciate ligament, long-term)
AjaxKasper Dolberg: out (knee surgery) · Daley Blind: out (back, individual training) · Caio Henrique: out (thigh, several weeks) · Anton Gaaei: out (knee) · Steven Berghuis: unavailable last match · Joeri Heerkens: unavailable last match
Checked Thu 15 Oct, 12:23.
The research
ProAjax have won 8 of the last 10 h2h meetings with Groningen (1 draw, 1 home win); Ajax's away form reads W W W D W, unbeaten in 5; Groningen's home form (W D L W W) has a loss mixed in despite sitting just one place above Ajax in the table (6th v 5th).
Same evidence as the straight away win: 8/10 h2h, unbeaten in 5 away (W W W D W). At 1.25 the bet needs 80 in a hundred just to break even.
Groningen's run (W W D D L) shows enough scoring to pick up draws and wins at home; Ajax missing Blind and Gaaei from defence is a route for Groningen to score. Ajax's own scoring is the question mark with Dolberg out after knee surgery.
The trap: Groningen 6th, Ajax 5th, close enough in the table to tempt a home-or-draw cover. But Ajax have won 8 of the last 10 h2h meetings and are unbeaten in 5 away (W W W D W); Groningen's own home form has a loss in the last 5 (W D L W W).
Price when written, Thu 15 Oct, 12:23. Today's prices are in the tables below.
The desk's verdict on the model's call: hold. Team news (Dolberg, Blind, Caio Henrique, Gaaei all out for Ajax) trims Ajax's advantage but doesn't flip it; the head to head (8/10) and unbeaten away run (W W W D W) still back the model's lean, though the price at 1.25 keeps the grade at MEDIUM rather than STRONG.
“Eight of the last ten meetings went Ajax's way; their away run says this trend holds again.”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Best price | Implied | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 4.10 | 24% | |
| Draw | 4.33 | 23% | |
| Ajax win | 1.83 | 55% | |
| Groningen or draw | 1.95 | 51% | |
| Ajax or draw | 1.29 | 78% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.22 | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 74% | |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 71% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.
Every priced market
18 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip. The desk's grade on each is in the research above.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeGroningen
LWWDDL
Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost. 15 scored, 12 conceded.
v Ajax Amsterdam
2-5
Lost
at Excelsior
5-1
Won
v PEC Zwolle
3-0
Won
at Go Ahead Eagles
1-1
Drew
v FC Twente
2-2
Drew
v Fortuna Sittard
2-3
Lost
Ajax
WLDDWW
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost. 19 scored, 9 conceded.
at FC Groningen
5-2
Won
at HNK Hajduk Split
1-2
Lost
v NEC Nijmegen
1-1
Drew
v Excelsior
2-2
Drew
v Willem II
5-1
Won
at Fortuna Sittard
5-1
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Groningen v Ajax: the numbers
Always freeGroningenAjax
6League position5
4-2-2League record, won-drawn-lost4-3-1
20-14Goals for and against22-10
14Points15
2-1-1Home record v away record3-0-0
2.50Scored a game2.80
1.80Conceded a game1.30
12%Clean sheets25%
13%Failed to score8%
75%Both teams scored71%
38%Over 2.5 goals38%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Groningen v Ajax: head to head
Always freeAjax v Groningen
2-0
Groningen v Ajax
3-1
Ajax v Groningen
2-0
Groningen v Ajax
2-2
Ajax v Groningen
3-1
Groningen v Ajax
2-3
Ajax v Groningen
6-1
Groningen v Ajax
1-3
Ajax v Groningen
3-0
Ajax v Groningen
3-1
Groningen vs Ajax: FAQs
Always freeGroningen vs Ajax prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.36. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Groningen vs Ajax kick off?
Groningen vs Ajax kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 UK time (Eredivisie).
What are the best odds for Groningen vs Ajax?
The best prices across the books we track: Groningen 4.10, the draw 4.33, Ajax 1.83. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen: Stije Resink: out (cruciate ligament, long-term). Ajax: Kasper Dolberg: out (knee surgery), Daley Blind: out (back, individual training), Caio Henrique: out (thigh, several weeks), Anton Gaaei: out (knee), Steven Berghuis: unavailable last match, Joeri Heerkens: unavailable last match.
What form are Groningen and Ajax in?
Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 6 (L W W D D L, newest first), scoring 15 and conceding 12. Ajax have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 6 (W L D D W W, newest first), scoring 19 and conceding 9.
What is the head to head between Groningen and Ajax?
In their last 10 meetings on our record, Groningen won 1, Ajax won 8 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, 21 May 2026, finished Ajax 2-0 Groningen.
Recent singles, graded
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Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
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1.67
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Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
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1.62
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Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
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1.65
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Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.