Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction
Tuesday 20 October 2026, 20:00 Champions League1159 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
The model's read
Liverpool 59%
Draw 23%
Villarreal 18%
The read
The deskLiverpool are clear favourites at home against a Villarreal side that has won only once away in its last five and arrives without Tajon Buchanan, Nicolas Pepe a doubt. The head to head leans the same way, home sides winning three of the last four meetings with no draws, so back the hosts rather than chase goals markets here.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeLiverpoolNo absences found.
VillarrealTajon Buchanan: out, hamstring · Nicolas Pepe: doubt
Checked Sat 17 Oct, 02:48.
One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1
The research
ProVillarreal travel without Buchanan (hamstring) and doubtful over Pepe, the pair most tied to their wide threat, with away form reading L W L L D, 1 win in 5. Their last match was a 1-0 loss to Real Madrid.
Villarreal's away form is L W L L D, 1 win in 5, and in the last 4 h2h meetings here they have won only 1. They arrive off a 1-0 loss to Real Madrid, without Buchanan (hamstring) and with Pepe a doubt.
“Villarreal arrive weakened on the wings and poor away; Liverpool's home advantage is the read, not the price”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
18+. BeGambleAware.org
The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 59% | 1.50 | 67% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.80 | 21% |
| Villarreal win | 18% | 6.25 | 16% |
| Liverpool or draw | 1.14 | 88% | |
| Villarreal or draw | 42% | 2.62 | 38% |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.20 | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.44 | 69% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.57 | 64% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
26 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeLiverpool
WWLWWD
Last 6, newest first: 4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost. 12 scored, 8 conceded.
at Brentford
2-1
Won
at Lask Linz
6-3
Won
v Manchester City
0-3
Lost
at AFC Bournemouth
1-0
Won
v Tottenham Hotspur
3-1
Won
v Fulham
0-0
Drew
Villarreal
DWLWWL
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 10 scored, 6 conceded.
v Elche
0-0
Drew
v Napoli
3-1
Won
at Real Madrid
0-1
Lost
v Levante
3-1
Won
at Málaga
3-1
Won
v Real Betis
1-2
Lost
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Liverpool v Villarreal: the numbers
Always freeLiverpoolVillarreal
5League position14
2-0-0League record, won-drawn-lost1-0-1
8-4Goals for and against5-4
6Points3
1-0-0Home record v away record0-0-1
4.00Scored a game2.50
2.00Conceded a game2.00
1.55xG for a game2.12
26%Clean sheets21%
11%Failed to score16%
68%Both teams scored63%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Liverpool v Villarreal: head to head
Always freeVillarreal v Liverpool
2-3
Liverpool v Villarreal
2-0
Liverpool v Villarreal
3-0
Villarreal v Liverpool
1-0
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: FAQs
Always freeLiverpool vs Villarreal prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.44. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Liverpool vs Villarreal kick off?
Liverpool vs Villarreal kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 UK time (Champions League).
What are the best odds for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The best prices across the books we track: Liverpool 1.50, the draw 4.80, Villarreal 6.25. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool: no absences found. Villarreal: Tajon Buchanan: out, hamstring, Nicolas Pepe: doubt.
What form are Liverpool and Villarreal in?
Liverpool have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 6 (W W L W W D, newest first), scoring 12 and conceding 8. Villarreal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (D W L W W L, newest first), scoring 10 and conceding 6.
What is the head to head between Liverpool and Villarreal?
In their last 4 meetings on our record, Liverpool won 3, Villarreal won 1 and 0 were drawn. The most recent, 3 May 2022, finished Villarreal 2-3 Liverpool.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew
1.40
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fiorentina v Como
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (1-3) Landed
-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fluminense v Santos
2.00
Over 2.5 goals (1-2) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Kristiansund BK v Aalesund
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-4) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Newcastle v Aston Villa
1.62
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.