Goal Rush Acca
For Sunday 18 October
We score every Over 1.5, Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score Yes pick across today's fixtures and select the strongest 4 by model probability.
Today's Picks
Avg 3.3 goals/game expected.
Avg 2.7 goals/game expected. Over 1.5 highly likely in high-scoring fixture.
Valerenga 79% to score (Brann concede 1.5/game). Brann 80%+ to score (Valerenga concede 2.0/game).
Avg 3.0 goals/game expected. Over 1.5 highly likely in high-scoring fixture.
How is this built?
Goals probability comes from team xG, season scoring/conceding rates, head-to-head goal averages, recent form, and lineup strength (when confirmed XIs are available). Only picks above 65% probability are eligible. Capped at 2 legs per match so the acca diversifies across the day's strongest games rather than tripling up on one fixture.
Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality picks within the same fixture are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. This acca includes leagues we are still building a verified record on, so these legs are the model's read on the bookmakers' odds rather than tracked picks.
Other daily accas today
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.