Poisson correct score
Enter each team's expected goals (xG) and the Poisson model returns the most likely scorelines, plus win/draw, over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score probabilities. The same maths the pros use for score prediction.
| Score | Probability |
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What is a Poisson correct score model?
Poisson is the standard probability distribution for counting independent events in a fixed window, and goals in a football match fit that shape well. Given an expected goal rate λ, the chance of exactly k goals is P(k; λ) = λk e−λ ⁄ k!.
Expected goals (xG) is your estimate of how many goals a side should score, based on the quality of chances rather than what happened to go in. We run Poisson separately for each team's xG, then combine the two distributions to get the probability of every scoreline, and from those, every market.
Why it's the benchmark: from two numbers it produces a full, internally consistent set of probabilities: correct scores, 1X2, over/under, BTTS, all from the same model. That's why it underpins most public score predictors.
The caveat: basic Poisson assumes the two teams' goals are independent and that scoring rate is constant. Real matches have red cards, game-state effects and correlation, so a raw model slightly under-rates draws and 0-0s. Treat it as a strong baseline, not gospel.
Built by the team behind a publicly verified football model, every pick logged before kick-off, 73% hit rate, losses included.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.