Minnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis City

Our call before kick-off

The model did not publish a free call on this game.

Match stats

Minnesota United FC		St. Louis City
27	Shots	15
11	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	7
14	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2.67	Expected goals (xG)	1.23

Our read before the game

Minnesota's home form has collapsed; St. Louis arrive on a five-game run in the opposite direction.

Minnesota have zero wins in their last five at home while St. Louis City have won five in a row and stayed unbeaten away. History says back the home side, but the form line says St. Louis are the team to trust here, not a hedge against them.

Written Wed 14 Oct, about 72 hours before kick-off, and left as it was.