Bournemouth vs AC Milan Prediction
Thursday 22 October 2026, 20:00 Europa League1159 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
The model's read
Bournemouth 43%
Draw 24%
AC Milan 34%
The read
The deskBournemouth are patched up under new boss Marco Rose and Milan arrive without both starting centre-backs under Ruben Amorim, so this reads as a game that produces goals more than a game either side dominates. The safer lean is the goals market, not picking a winner with this much missing on both sides.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeBournemouthAlex Scott: out (tendon injury, several weeks) · Eli Junior Kroupi: out (fifth metatarsal fracture) · Julian Araujo: out (thigh surgery) · Veljko Milosavljevic: out (knee injury) · Amine Adli: doubt (calf injury) · Adams: doubt (fitness)
AC MilanMatteo Gabbia: out (torn hamstring, 3-4 months) · Alexis Saelemaekers: out (ankle surgery) · Christian Pulisic: doubt (leg injury, no current update) · Santiago Gimenez: doubt (injury on national team duty)
Checked Mon 19 Oct, 02:53.
The research
ProThe trap for a casual reader seeing Bournemouth 5th and home form W W L D W against a mid-table Milan side (16th). But our own model has the straight home win at only 37% @2.20, well below the double chance read on the same game, and Bournemouth are missing four first-team pieces: Scott, Kroupi, Araujo and Milosavljevic. The win is live but not the strongest version of this read.
“Bournemouth's home form and Milan's back-line injuries point at goals, not a Milan certainty”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Best price | Implied | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 2.20 | 45% | |
| Draw | 3.50 | 29% | |
| AC Milan win | 3.10 | 32% | |
| Bournemouth or draw | 1.36 | 74% | |
| AC Milan or draw | 1.70 | 59% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.30 | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 58% | |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 62% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.
Every priced market
16 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeBournemouth
WWLLWD
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 10 scored, 9 conceded.
v Sunderland
2-0
Won
v SK Sturm Graz
3-0
Won
at Chelsea
1-5
Lost
v Liverpool
0-1
Lost
at Real Sociedad
2-1
Won
v Brentford
2-2
Drew
AC Milan
WWDWLD
Last 6, newest first: 3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost. 13 scored, 7 conceded.
v Atalanta
3-2
Won
at Sassuolo
1-1
Drew
v Lecce
3-0
Won
v Benfica
0-2
Lost
at Lazio
2-2
Drew
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Bournemouth v AC Milan: the numbers
Always freeBournemouthAC Milan
5League position16
2-0-0League record, won-drawn-lost1-0-1
5-1Goals for and against4-2
6Points3
1-0-0Home record v away record1-0-0
2.50Scored a game2.00
0.50Conceded a game1.00
1.79xG for a game1.56
50%Clean sheets50%
6%Failed to score50%
65%Both teams scored47%
50%Over 2.5 goals50%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Bournemouth v AC Milan: head to head
Always freeA first meeting: Bournemouth and AC Milan have not played each other in the record we hold.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: FAQs
Always freeBournemouth vs AC Milan prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Bournemouth vs AC Milan kick off?
Bournemouth vs AC Milan kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 UK time (Europa League).
What are the best odds for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
The best prices across the books we track: Bournemouth 2.20, the draw 3.50, AC Milan 3.10. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth: Alex Scott: out (tendon injury, several weeks), Eli Junior Kroupi: out (fifth metatarsal fracture), Julian Araujo: out (thigh surgery), Veljko Milosavljevic: out (knee injury), Amine Adli: doubt (calf injury), Adams: doubt (fitness). AC Milan: Matteo Gabbia: out (torn hamstring, 3-4 months), Alexis Saelemaekers: out (ankle surgery), Christian Pulisic: doubt (leg injury, no current update), Santiago Gimenez: doubt (injury on national team duty).
What form are Bournemouth and AC Milan in?
Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 (W W L L W D, newest first), scoring 10 and conceding 9. AC Milan have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 6 (W W D W L D, newest first), scoring 13 and conceding 7.
Recent singles, graded
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Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.