Pafos vs Riga Prediction
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 Europa Conference League1159 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
The model's read
Pafos 56%
Draw 22%
Riga 22%
The read
The deskPafos arrive winless in five matches and have managed only one win in their last three at home, while Riga have gone unbeaten in five and lost just once in their last four away. The board tags Pafos as clear favourites, but recent form says this game is tighter than the price suggests.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freePafosRicardo Sa Pinto: head coach, replaced Albert Celades
RigaAdrian Gula: head coach, unchanged
Checked Mon 19 Oct, 01:16.
The research
ProPafos are winless in their last 5 (L D D D L) and 32nd in their table; their home form is only 1 win in their last 3 (D D W). Riga arrive unbeaten in 5 (D W D D W), 22nd in the table, with just 1 loss in their last 4 away (D D W L). The favourite's recent output does not match the price.
“Pafos are winless in five, Riga arrive unbeaten in five - no safe favourite at 1.58.”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Best price | Implied | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos win | 1.65 | 61% | |
| Draw | 3.80 | 26% | |
| Riga win | 5.00 | 20% | |
| Pafos or draw | 1.18 | 85% | |
| Riga or draw | 2.20 | 45% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.25 | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 58% | |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 57% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.
Every priced market
11 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freePafos
LDDDLW
Last 6, newest first: 1 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost. 11 scored, 10 conceded.
at Atalanta
1-3
Lost
v Dinamo Tirana
2-2
Drew
at Dinamo Tirana
1-1
Drew
v Red Bull Salzburg
3-3
Drew
at Red Bull Salzburg
0-1
Lost
v HNK Hajduk Split
4-0
Won
Riga
DWDDWL
Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost. 6 scored, 5 conceded.
v Kairat Almaty
1-1
Drew
v KI Klaksvik
2-1
Won
at KI Klaksvik
0-0
Drew
at Gyori ETO FC
1-1
Drew
v Gyori ETO FC
1-0
Won
v Vardar Skopje
1-2
Lost
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
Pafos v Riga: the numbers
Always freePafosRiga
32League position22
1-1-1League record, won-drawn-lost4-3-0
6-6Goals for and against13-7
0Points1
1-0-0Home record v away record1-2-0
2.00Scored a game1.90
2.00Conceded a game1.00
14%Clean sheets29%
29%Failed to score14%
57%Both teams scored67%
33%Over 2.5 goals29%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
Pafos v Riga: head to head
Always freeA first meeting: Pafos and Riga have not played each other in the record we hold.
Pafos vs Riga: FAQs
Always freePafos vs Riga prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does Pafos vs Riga kick off?
Pafos vs Riga kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 UK time (Europa Conference League).
What are the best odds for Pafos vs Riga?
The best prices across the books we track: Pafos 1.65, the draw 3.80, Riga 5.00. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for Pafos vs Riga?
Pafos: Ricardo Sa Pinto: head coach, replaced Albert Celades. Riga: Adrian Gula: head coach, unchanged.
What form are Pafos and Riga in?
Pafos have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 6 (L D D D L W, newest first), scoring 11 and conceding 10. Riga have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 6 (D W D D W L, newest first), scoring 6 and conceding 5.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew
1.40
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fiorentina v Como
1.67
Over 2.5 goals (1-3) Landed
-
Sun 18 Oct
Pro single
Fluminense v Santos
2.00
Over 2.5 goals (1-2) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Kristiansund BK v Aalesund
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-4) Landed
-
Sat 17 Oct
Pro single
Newcastle v Aston Villa
1.62
Over 2.5 goals (0-1) Lost
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.