Toluca v Club Tijuana bet builder

Thursday 22 October 2026, 02:00 · Liga MX

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

Toluca or draw

80%+ the model

The pre-match read for this game is double chance, Toluca or draw (90%). Double chance is our strongest verified market.

1.11 +
Over 2.5 Goals

80%+ the model

Goals: the sides' goal rates read 3.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

1.07 +

Combined fair odds2 legs, 84% chance all land

1.18

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Toluca v Club Tijuana, 84% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

Under 4.5 Goals 75% 1.26 +
Toluca Home Win 65% 1.40 +
Under 3.5 Goals 56% 1.63 +
Toluca (first half) First Half 55% 1.83 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

F. Viñas Toluca

Shots on target 1+

F. Viñas: 0.89 shots on target a game over 9 games [WC form: 2.20/90 over 2 games (123 min), 23% weight
Helinho Toluca

Shots on target 1+

Helinho: 1.09 shots on target a game over 11 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
A. Vega Toluca

Shots on target 1+

A. Vega: 0.80 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
N. Castro Toluca

Shots on target 1+

N. Castro: 0.78 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Mourad Club Tijuana

Shots on target 1+

Mourad: 0.80 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
I. Rivero Club Tijuana

Shots on target 1+

I. Rivero: 0.75 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
J. Angulo Toluca

Shots on target 1+

J. Angulo: 0.50 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Helinho Toluca

Anytime assist

Helinho on 0.45 assists/match (11 apps, 22 key passes), match xG 2.69
F. Viñas Toluca

Shots on target 2+

F. Viñas: 0.89 shots on target a game over 9 games [WC form: 2.20/90 over 2 games (123 min), 23% weight
I. Tona Club Tijuana

To be carded

I. Tona (Midfielder) on 0.36 yellows/match (11 apps), pos-mult 1.20

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

Over 11.5 Match Corners 65%
Corners: Toluca avg 5.6 for/5.8 against, Club Tijuana avg 7.8 for/7.0 against so expected 13.1 match corners
Over 9.5 Match Corners 80%+
Corners: Toluca avg 5.6 for/5.8 against, Club Tijuana avg 7.8 for/7.0 against so expected 13.1 match corners; the safer line
Over 4.5 Match Cards 40%
Cards: Toluca avg 2.4/game, Club Tijuana avg 1.8/game so expected 4.2 match cards
Over 2.5 Match Cards 78%
Cards: Toluca avg 2.4/game, Club Tijuana avg 1.8/game so expected 4.2 match cards; the safer line
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 52%
Fouls: Toluca avg 13.4/game, Club Tijuana avg 7.5/game so expected 20.9 match fouls
Over 16.5 Match Fouls 80%+
Fouls: Toluca avg 13.4/game, Club Tijuana avg 7.5/game so expected 20.9 match fouls; the safer line
Over 26.5 Match Shots 80%+
Shots: Toluca avg 17.6/game, Club Tijuana avg 16.3/game so expected 33.9 match shots
Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
Shots: Toluca avg 17.6/game, Club Tijuana avg 16.3/game so expected 33.9 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

Over 1 second half goals 83% market Marathon Bet
1.20 +
Under 4.5 goals 83% market Bet365
1.25 +
Club Tijuana under 1.5 goals 80% market Bet365
1.28 +
Under 2 first half goals 79% market Marathon Bet
1.26 +
Under 2.5 second half goals 78% market Bet365
1.33 +
Toluca under 3 goals 78% market Marathon Bet
1.28 +
Under 4 goals 77% market BetVictor
1.35 +
Toluca over 1.5 goals 74% market Bet365
1.40 +
Toluca to win 72% market Bet365
1.42 +
Over 1 first half goals 72% market BetVictor
1.45 +
Over 2.5 goals 70% market Bet365
1.48 +
Club Tijuana over 0.5 goals 68% market Bet365
1.50 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.