Sturm Graz crestMarseille crest

Sturm Graz v Marseille bet builder

Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 · Europa League

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Sturm Graz or draw

    57% the model

    Our board prices this at 58%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.74 +

  • Over 1.5 Goals

    77% the model

    Avg 2.3 goals/game expected. Over 1.5 highly likely in high-scoring fixture.

    1.29 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 45% chance all land
2.25

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Sturm Graz v Marseille, 45% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Marseille or Draw Double Chance 73% 1.31 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 64% 1.42 +
  • Over 2.5 Goals 56% 1.72 +

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Over 1.5 goals 85% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 83% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Marseille under 2.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Sturm Graz or Marseille (double chance) 80% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Marseille over 1 goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.31 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 77% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Marseille or Draw (double chance) 77% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Sturm Graz over 0.5 goals 77% market Bet365
    1.33 +
  • Over 2 goals 76% market BetVictor
    1.33 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 75% market Marathon Bet
    1.34 +
  • Sturm Graz under 1.5 goals 69% market Bet365
    1.50 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.