Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City bet builder
A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+
The model's build
No record in this league yet, the market's prices only-
1.38 +
Melbourne Victory or Draw
73% the modelThe outright win sits at only 45%, so we take the safer Double Chance (73%) covering the same side.
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1.73 +
Over 2.5 Goals
58% the modelGoals: the sides' goal rates read 1.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 58%.
Built from the bookmakers' prices for Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City, 42% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.
Alternative picks
- Over 1.5 Goals 77% 1.19 +
- Under 3.5 Goals 66% 1.38 +
- Melbourne City or Draw Double Chance 62% 1.58 +
How this is built
The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.
The market's own prices
Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles
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Under 2.5 second half goals 85% market William Hill1.22 +
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Over 1.5 goals 85% market Bet3651.22 +
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Melbourne City under 2 goals 85% market Marathon Bet1.19 +
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Melbourne City over 0.5 goals 81% market BetVictor1.29 +
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Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City (double chance) 79% market William Hill1.30 +
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Over 0.5 first half goals 78% market Bet3651.33 +
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Melbourne Victory under 2 goals 78% market Marathon Bet1.30 +
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Over 2 goals 77% market BetVictor1.34 +
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Under 2 second half goals 76% market Marathon Bet1.32 +
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Melbourne Victory or Draw (double chance) 74% market William Hill1.40 +
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Melbourne Victory over 1 goals 74% market Marathon Bet1.36 +
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Under 1.5 first half goals 69% market BetVictor1.51 +
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The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.