Estrela crestCasa Pia crest

Estrela v Casa Pia bet builder

Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:30 · Primeira Liga

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Estrela or draw

    80%+ the model

    The pre-match read for this game is double chance, Estrela or draw (90%). Double chance is our strongest verified market.

    1.11 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    76% the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 76%.

    1.31 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 69% chance all land
1.46

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Estrela v Casa Pia, 69% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 76% 1.29 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 71% 1.27 +
  • Estrela Home Win 53% 1.71 +
  • Casa Pia or Draw Double Chance 50% 2.09 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • A. Marcus Estrela
    Shots on target 1+

    A. Marcus: 1.25 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • L. Antonetti Estrela
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Antonetti: 0.88 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • I. Stoica Estrela
    Shots on target 1+

    I. Stoica: 0.75 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • A. Marcus Estrela
    Shots on target 2+

    A. Marcus: 1.25 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Santiago Serra Estrela
    Shots on target 1+

    Santiago Serra: 0.40 shots on target a game over 5 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 40%
    Corners: Estrela avg 3.0 for/4.4 against, Casa Pia avg 3.6 for/4.9 against so expected 8.0 match corners
  • Over 5.5 Match Corners 80%+
    Corners: Estrela avg 3.0 for/4.4 against, Casa Pia avg 3.6 for/4.9 against so expected 8.0 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 64%
    Cards: Estrela avg 3.2/game, Casa Pia avg 2.3/game so expected 5.5 match cards
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Estrela avg 3.2/game, Casa Pia avg 2.3/game so expected 5.5 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 46%
    Fouls: Estrela avg 10.2/game, Casa Pia avg 13.9/game so expected 24.1 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 76%
    Fouls: Estrela avg 10.2/game, Casa Pia avg 13.9/game so expected 24.1 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 52%
    Shots: Estrela avg 14.0/game, Casa Pia avg 8.9/game so expected 22.9 match shots
  • Over 18.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Estrela avg 14.0/game, Casa Pia avg 8.9/game so expected 22.9 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Casa Pia under 1.5 goals 83% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 82% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Estrela under 2.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Under 2 second half goals 81% market Marathon Bet
    1.24 +
  • Estrela or Casa Pia (double chance) 79% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 78% market Bet365
    1.30 +
  • Estrela over 1 goals 78% market Marathon Bet
    1.28 +
  • Under 1.5 first half goals 74% market William Hill
    1.40 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 74% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Over 8 corners 74% market 1xBet
    1.36 +
  • Casa Pia under 1 goals 69% market Marathon Bet
    1.45 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.