Alaves crestMalaga crest

Alaves v Malaga bet builder

Friday 23 October 2026, 20:00 · La Liga

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record

  • Alaves or draw

    79% the model

    Record this market has landed 83% across 272 graded picks

    Our board prices this at 79%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.27 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    76% the model

    Record this market has landed 64% across 116 graded picks

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 76%.

    1.31 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 60% chance all land
1.66

The model puts this 2-leg build at 60% combined for Alaves v Malaga. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 75% 1.33 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 70% 1.27 +
  • Malaga or Draw Double Chance 52% 1.96 +
  • Alaves Home Win 51% 1.84 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • L. Boyé Alaves
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Boyé: 1.00 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Angel Pérez Alaves
    Shots on target 1+

    Angel Pérez: 0.63 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • David Larrubia Malaga
    Shots on target 1+

    David Larrubia: 0.50 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Chupe Malaga
    Shots on target 1+

    Chupe: 0.50 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 9.5 Match Corners 54%
    Corners: Alaves avg 4.1 for/4.4 against, Malaga avg 6.8 for/4.6 against so expected 10.0 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 78%
    Corners: Alaves avg 4.1 for/4.4 against, Malaga avg 6.8 for/4.6 against so expected 10.0 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 52%
    Cards: Alaves avg 1.8/game, Malaga avg 3.0/game so expected 4.8 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Alaves avg 1.8/game, Malaga avg 3.0/game so expected 4.8 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 71%
    Fouls: Alaves avg 13.7/game, Malaga avg 13.8/game so expected 27.5 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Alaves avg 13.7/game, Malaga avg 13.8/game so expected 27.5 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 53%
    Shots: Alaves avg 12.4/game, Malaga avg 10.6/game so expected 23.0 match shots
  • Over 18.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Alaves avg 12.4/game, Malaga avg 10.6/game so expected 23.0 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Alaves over 0.5 goals 85% market Bet365
    1.20 +
  • Alaves or Draw (double chance) 83% market William Hill
    1.20 +
  • Alaves under 2.5 goals 83% market Bet365
    1.20 +
  • Malaga under 1.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 80% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Alaves or Malaga (double chance) 80% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Under 2 second half goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.26 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 77% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Under 1.5 first half goals 74% market BetVictor
    1.37 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 74% market BetVictor
    1.43 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.